3184 Pondcreek Rd · Belfry, KY 41555

$20,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1925 3,920 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for your next investment opportunity? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is priced to sell and packed with potential for the right buyer. Whether you're an investor, flipper, or handy homeowner ready to take on a full renovation, this property offers the chance to bring your vision to life from the ground up. A complete gut and remodel is needed, making it the perfect blank canvas for those with the skills, creativity, and ambition to transform it into something special.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1925

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shingle roof

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($985 rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#374 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belfry Elementary (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #334 of 676 statewide, top 50%, 592 students, 68% FRL); Belfry Middle School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 349 students, 75% FRL); Belfry High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 531 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $690 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $552 appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,700 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 140.72%
• DSCR: 7.26
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,920
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Sullivan St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (-12%)	9mo	$65,000	$66	50
415 Pinsonfork Rd	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,200 (+7%)	9mo	$40,000	$33	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.76% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $17,082
• Equity at exit: $8,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.31×
• Total profit: $40,953
• Equity at exit: $13,238

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41555

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $985 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$8 /mo · $96/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $693

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $20,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $20,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $20,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $20,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-29
    listed $20,000 Active
16. 1994-05-01
    soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $96 · $8/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $172 · $14/mo
• Expected delta: +$76/yr (+$6/mo · 79.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$96
• − Insurance: −$5,218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$945
• − Management: −$945
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $2,909
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$698
• After-tax cash flow: $2,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Belfry

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #17694

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,017

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.76%
• Current HPI: 145.1247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+14.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $20,000 EKAR
• 1994-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-78.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $96 · -78.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.