4208 Umbria Rd

Oklahoma City, OK 73179

$219,900C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,668 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,959/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $27/mo
• Annual: $327/yr
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($327/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (10.9% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Mustang (suburban): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #28 of 270 in OK (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prairie View Es (math 53% / reading 36%, grade F, #63 of 845 statewide, top 8%, 765 students, 0% FRL); Canyon Ridge Ies (math 43% / reading 36%, grade F, #8 of 345 statewide, top 2%, 749 students, 0% FRL); Mustang Hs (math 28% / reading 39%, grade F, #65 of 447 statewide, top 14%, 3,756 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 28% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 260 units permitted in Canadian County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canadian County population projected at +64% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.