4208 Umbria Rd · Oklahoma City, OK 73179

$219,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,668 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 5,998 sqft lot Est $297k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to this 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home in Siena Ridge Addition! Open living room with vinyl flooring. Kitchen features 5 burner gas range, microwave, Refrigerator (as is), vinyl flooring, dark wood cabinets, pantry and dining room. Interior laundry room. Primary suite features single sink vanity, shower/tub combo and walk in closet. Other features include covered front door, blinds, 2 car garage and covered back patio.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Single sink vanity
• Shower tub combo

Tags

• 5 BURNER GAS RANGE
• DARK WOOD CABINETS
• PANTRY
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• SINGLE SINK VANITY
• SHOWER TUB COMBO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Located in Siena Ridge Ph 1
• Financial info: Loan qualification available; Not assumable
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: No flood insurance required
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; Residential property; Entry level: One
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as existing property
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered porch; Interior lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: In-law plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($327/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Mustang (suburban): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #28 of 270 in OK (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prairie View Es (math 53% / reading 36%, grade F, #63 of 845 statewide, top 8%, 765 students, 0% FRL); Canyon Ridge Ies (math 43% / reading 36%, grade F, #8 of 345 statewide, top 2%, 749 students, 0% FRL); Mustang Hs (math 28% / reading 39%, grade F, #65 of 447 statewide, top 14%, 3,756 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 28% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 260 units permitted in Canadian County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canadian County population projected at +64% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,866 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,904
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4000 Palmetto Trl	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,718 (+3%)	1mo	$299,900	$175	76
4013 Palisade Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (-3%)	0mo	$285,000	$175	69
9232 SW 44th Ter	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+8%)	2mo	$341,150	$190	68
4104 Palmetto Trl	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,852 (+11%)	0mo	$329,900	$178	64
9221 SW 44th Ter	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,851 (+11%)	1mo	$344,875	$186	64
4801 Tsavo Way	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (-7%)	2mo	$255,000	$164	58
3708 Palisade Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-9%)	2mo	$275,000	$181	56
8820 SW 31st Ter	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,572 (-6%)	2mo	$231,990	$148	55
8800 SW 44th Ter	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-6%)	2mo	$279,000	$178	49
4001 Becky Ln	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,840 (+10%)	1mo	$260,900	$142	47
3920 Alnwick Ln	0.64mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,479 (-11%)	1mo	$267,000	$181	42
8825 SW 31st Ter	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-14%)	1mo	$215,000	$150	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-33,866
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-27,131
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73179

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,959 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,303/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $90	+0% $27	+5% $-35	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-50	+0% $27	+5% $105	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $83	base $27	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4217 Siena Ridge Blvd Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,695	$0.92	12d	1	0.07mi
9356 SW 43rd St Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	2.0	1814	$2,199	$1.21	25d	1	0.21mi
9717 SW 40th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,279	$1.11	3d	1	0.28mi
9308 SW 42nd St Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,650	$1.26	25d	1	0.31mi
9301 SW 44th Ter Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	2.0	1891	$2,249	$1.19	16d	1	0.35mi
9301 SW 44th Ter Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	2.0	1891	$2,249	$1.19	6d	1	0.35mi
9207 SW 47th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,600	$1.19	25d	1	0.48mi
9028 SW 46th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,575	$1.26	25d	1	0.58mi
9028 SW 46th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,525	$1.22	19d	1	0.58mi
8913 SW 42nd St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,850	$1.24	25d	1	0.62mi
4004 Dutch LN Mustang, OK	4.0	2.0	1544	$1,595	$1.03	16d	1	0.75mi
4004 Dutch LN Mustang, OK	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,595	$1.03	13d	1	0.75mi
4000 Dutch LN Mustang, OK	4.0	2.0	1690	$1,795	$1.06	25d	1	0.75mi
3909 Dutch LN Mustang, OK	4.0	2.0	1613	$1,595	$0.99	16d	1	0.78mi
3909 Dutch LN Mustang, OK	4.0	2.0	1613	$1,595	$0.99	18d	1	0.78mi
10508 SW 41st St Mustang, OK	5.0	2.0	1949	$2,250	$1.15	25d	1	0.82mi
4517 Hunter Blvd Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1709	$1,695	$0.99	25d	1	0.85mi
9532 SW 28th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,595	$1.04	23d	1	0.88mi
9675 SW 29th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,699	$1.11	18d	1	0.91mi
4101 Western Heights Ave Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	2.5	1593	$3,500	$2.20	6d	1	0.99mi
2704 Fennel Rd Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,500	$1.24	16d	1	0.99mi
8421 SW 47th Cir Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,550	$1.25	16d	1	1.03mi
9540 SW 25th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,695	$1.11	25d	1	1.04mi
8509 SW 49th Cir Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	2.0	1673	$1,750	$1.05	25d	1	1.04mi
8517 SW 50th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1653	$1,695	$1.03	25d	1	1.05mi
5632 Dunlin Rd Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,540	$1.17	6d	1	1.06mi
2500 Flame Lily Rd Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,525	$1.24	25d	1	1.06mi
2500 Flame Lily Rd Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,495	$1.23	13d	1	1.06mi
5705 Sanderling Rd Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,650	$1.06	13d	1	1.15mi
5809 Sanderling Rd Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	3.0	1910	$2,015	$1.05	4d	1	1.20mi
9612 SW 23rd St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,525	$1.22	25d	1	1.23mi
9612 SW 23rd St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,525	$1.22	23d	1	1.23mi
9921 SW 25th St Yukon, OK	3.0	2.0	1471	$1,599	$1.09	25d	1	1.25mi
10425 SW 41st St Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	2.5	1822	$1,950	$1.07	25d	1	1.35mi
10524 SW 38th St Mustang, OK	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1680	$1,980	$1.18	3d	4	1.42mi
2509 Crystal Creek Dr Yukon, OK	3.0	2.5	1996	$2,000	$1.00	6d	1	1.43mi
2109 Breakers West Blvd Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1722	$1,800	$1.05	6d	1	1.45mi
10021 SW 21st St Yukon, OK	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,800	$1.21	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $219,900 Pending 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $219,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $229,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-05-22
    price $229,900
11. 2026-05-07
    price $244,900
12. 2026-04-22
    listed $254,900 Active
13. 2024-12-06
    historical $1,585
14. 2024-11-06
    price $1,599
15. 2024-10-23
    listed $1,625
16. 2022-05-20
    soldstatus $7,924,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,303 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,303 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,303
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$810
• After-tax cash flow: $1,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. Painting the exterior and replacing blinds would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both replace blinds — improves energy efficiency and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both replace blinds — improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mustang
• NCES district ID: 4021000
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,559
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6038
• State rank: #28 of 270 in OK

Livability — Oklahoma City

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1635

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oklahoma City, OK
• County: Oklahoma County · 771,644 people
• City population: 498,656
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 8,532
• Household income: $112,656
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 144.0

Population outlook (Canadian County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,062 people
• By 2030: 195,170 · +12.1%
• By 2040: 239,293 · +37.5%
• By 2050: 285,457 · +64.0%
• By 2075: 403,766 · +132.0%
• By 2100: 498,766 · +186.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 15% Asian 10% Black 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Vietnam, Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% Vietnamese 8% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Canadian

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.4) · D 28.8% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.9pp toward D · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -40.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.4 2020: R+43.3 2016: R+51.2 2012: R+54.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.22%
• Current HPI: 229.2484
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-97.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $229,900 MLSOK
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $244,900 MLSOK
• 2026-04-22 Listed $254,900 MLSOK
• 2024-12-06 Rental Removed $1,585 RENT.
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $1,599 RENT.
• 2024-10-23 Listed for Rent $1,625 RENT.
• 2022-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $7,924,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,303 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.