1004 Chestnut St

LaFayette, GA 30728

$119,900B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,517 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,591/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $428/mo
• Annual: $5,140/yr
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.31%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#345 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Walker County (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #114 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gilbert Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 508 students, 80% FRL); Lafayette Middle School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #291 of 470 statewide, top 64%, 575 students, 77% FRL); Lafayette High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #353 of 424 statewide, top 86%, 1,164 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 218 active listings in the ZIP; 347 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walker County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.1% in LaFayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.