1597 Alamo Dr #140

Vacaville, CA 95688

$164,900B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,634/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $941/mo
• Annual: $11,297/yr
• Cap rate: 13.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.47%
• DSCR: 2.09
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $941 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in CA, #3,156 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Vacaville Unified (suburban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #522 of 1,400 in CA (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eugene Padan Elementary (720 students, 59% FRL); Vaca Pena Middle (689 students, 53% FRL); Will C. Wood High (1,670 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 34% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.0% in Vacaville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.