806 S Dawes Ave

Garden Acres, CA 95215

$350,000D+

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · Built 1947 · MultiFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,236/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $474/mo
• Annual: $5,692/yr
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.81%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (7.5% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $324k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#964 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilhelmina Henry Elementary (901 students, 77% FRL); Stockton High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 135 students, 67% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 34% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $350k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Garden Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.