806 S Dawes Ave · Garden Acres, CA 95215

$350,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1947 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Great investment property or live in one and rent the 2nd unit

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1947

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $324k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Garden Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#964 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilhelmina Henry Elementary (901 students, 77% FRL); Stockton High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 135 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 34% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $350k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $323,600 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.81%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $709,280
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
243 S Carroll Ave	0.36mi	4/3.0	1,297 (-5%)	6mo	$675,000	$520	66
254 S Adelbert Ave	0.45mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,270 (-7%)	0mo	$460,000	$362	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-26,662
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $15,043
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95215

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 18.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,210/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,636

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $672	-5% $573	+0% $474	+5% $375	+10% $276
Rent	-10% $219	-5% $347	+0% $474	+5% $602	+10% $730
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $563	base $474	+0.5pp $384	+1.0pp $291

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,236
Total (2 units)			$3,236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3142 Castellon Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,195	$1.75	4d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2020-09-23
   status Pending Sale
2. 2020-09-22
   listed $260,900 Active
3. 2020-09-22
   historical
4. 2020-09-22
   historical
5. 2020-09-22
   listed $260,900 Active
6. 2020-07-31
   historical
7. 2020-06-27
   status Active
8. 2020-06-08
   status Pending Sale
9. 2020-02-20
   listed $260,900 Active
10. 2013-04-25
    soldstatus $70,000
11. 2011-01-05
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold
12. 2011-01-05
    soldstatus $75,000
13. 2010-12-10
    price $75,000
14. 2010-08-05
    status Pending (Do Not Show)
15. 2010-08-02
    price $82,000
16. 2010-08-02
    price $70,000 Active
17. 2010-08-02
    status Active
18. 2010-05-07
    historical
19. 2010-04-23
    status Pending (Do Not Show)
20. 2010-04-06
    listed $82,000 Active
21. 2004-06-24
    soldstatus $178,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,660 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,450/yr (+$121/mo · 119.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$1,210
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,107
• − Management: −$3,107
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$31
• After-tax cash flow: $5,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Garden Acres

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #964
• US rank: #24523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garden Acres, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,032

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% Two or more races 23% White 23% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.84%
• Current HPI: 1200.44
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+46.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2020-09-23 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-09-22 Listed $260,900 CRMLS
• 2020-09-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-09-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-09-22 Listed $260,900 CRMLS
• 2020-07-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-06-27 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2020-06-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-02-20 Listed $260,900 CRMLS
• 2013-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-05 Sold (MLS) $75,000 MLSListings
• 2010-12-10 Price Changed $75,000 MLSListings
• 2010-08-05 Pending — MLSListings
• 2010-08-02 Price Changed $82,000 MLSListings
• 2010-08-02 Relisted — MLSListings
• 2010-08-02 Price Changed $70,000 MLSListings
• 2010-05-07 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2010-04-23 Pending — MLSListings
• 2010-04-06 Listed $82,000 MLSListings
• 2004-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,210 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.