3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,225 sqft ·
Built 1972
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 89 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,005/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,617
Tax + insurance
−$621
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$631
Net cashflow
$-864/mo
Annual
$-10,371/yr
Cap rate
4.21%
Cash-on-cash
-7.42%
DSCR
0.67
1% rule
0.60%
Cash to close
$139,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-864 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $346k (30.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (39.8% below list).
It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $301k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in FL, #790 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities D.
Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: 251 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $126k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $310k; list at $499k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MSW3766XTW288V
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29