3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,050 sqft ·
Built 1952
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 96 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,082/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$304
Tax + insurance
−$146
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$437
Net cashflow
$1,195/mo
Annual
$14,338/yr
Cap rate
31.01%
Cash-on-cash
88.29%
DSCR
4.93
1% rule
3.59%
Cash to close
$16,240
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $58k).
It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $53k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Bowie El (math 34% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,965 of 4,322 statewide, top 46%, 476 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 57% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 520 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 31.0% vs local median 6.6% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior siding
— The siding is visibly weathered and peeling.
Major: exterior paint
— The paint is peeling and the siding is weathered.
Major: landscaping
— The landscaping is overgrown and needs trimming.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MTAFKADF1RVTQH
· Data 18 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29