8 Oceanview Ave

Keansburg, NJ 07734

$650,000F

None bd · None ba · 4,655 sqft · Built 1920 · MultiFamily · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,440/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,447
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-2,928/mo
• Annual: $-35,142/yr
• Cap rate: 1.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.50%
• DSCR: 0.27
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a multifamily listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-35k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (72.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (62.5% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($592k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (72.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#355 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living D, schools F, amenities F.
• Keansburg School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #443 of 472 in NJ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $420k; list at $650k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 3.2% in Keansburg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?