825 15th St

Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$71,999A

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,974 sqft · Built 1901 · SingleFamily · Active · 265 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,330/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $356/mo
• Annual: $4,270/yr
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.18%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.85%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($498 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price; built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,330/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.