825 15th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$71,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,974 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 265 Days on market

Built 1901 3,614 sqft lot $36/sqft · 32% below area Est $107k · 32% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 825 15th! Located in the short term rental zone in Niagara Falls, this charming stucco gem is waiting for you to call yours! With a little TLC this 3 bed, 1.5 diamond in the rough has great potential.

Key facts

• 3,614 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1901

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,330/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($498 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price; built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $63,359 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.18%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,580
• List price: $71,999
• Delta: -32.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1715 Whitney Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,098 (+6%)	14mo	$100,000	$48	60
757 19th St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,748 (-11%)	21mo	$105,000	$60	49
2211 Linwood Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,860 (-6%)	17mo	$127,200	$68	48
1424 Osborne Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,722 (-13%)	4mo	$70,000	$41	46
1886 South Ave	0.68mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,920 (-3%)	18mo	$137,000	$71	42
650 Orchard Pkwy	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,890 (-4%)	21mo	$280,000	$148	39
629 Orchard Pkwy	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,824 (-8%)	19mo	$269,900	$148	38
1846 Willow Ave	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,769 (-10%)	20mo	$120,000	$68	38
601 Spruce Ave	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,760 (-11%)	8mo	$155,000	$88	36
2222 Weston Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,690 (-14%)	15mo	$110,000	$65	30
1791 Welch Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-14%)	8mo	$35,200	$21	29
1157 Ontario Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,202 (+12%)	13mo	$120,000	$54	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $69,045
• Equity at exit: $64,862

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 11.08×
• Total profit: $203,192
• Equity at exit: $139,878

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,330 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,444/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $879

Max offer price $71,999

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $603	-5% $578	+0% $356	+5% $335	+10% $315
Rent	-10% $251	-5% $303	+0% $356	+5% $408	+10% $461
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $374	base $356	+0.5pp $337	+1.0pp $318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	4d	1	0.02mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.36mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	4d	1	0.66mi
1312 Ontario Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	44d	1	0.76mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	2d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $71,999 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $71,999 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $81,999 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $81,999 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $81,999 Active 260 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $81,999 Active 259 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $81,999 Active 257 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $81,999 Active 256 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $81,999 Active 255 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $81,999 Active 254 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $81,999 Active 250 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $81,999 Active 249 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $81,999 Active 248 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $81,999 Active 247 DOM
15. 2025-12-11
    price $81,999 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Welcome to 825 15th! Located in the short term rental zone in Niagara Falls, this charming stucco gem is waiting for you to call yours! With a little TLC this 3 bed, 1.5 diamond in the rough has great potential.

16. 2025-09-26
    listed $85,000 Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Welcome to 825 15th! Located in the short term rental zone in Niagara Falls, this charming stucco gem is waiting for you to call yours! With a little TLC this 3 bed, 1.5 diamond in the rough has great potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,444 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,444 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$3,444
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $3,471
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$833
• After-tax cash flow: $3,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $81,999 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $85,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,444 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.