402 John B Carter Rd

Vander, NC 28312

$225,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,905/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $43/mo
• Annual: $518/yr
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($518/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (15.3% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#645 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 125% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Vander — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.