402 John B Carter Rd · Vander, NC 28312

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $157k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property next door can be purchased with this property.

Key facts

• Small pond
• Deck
• Water mill

Tags

• ONE BEDROOM APARTMENT
• SMALL POND
• DECK
• WATER MILL
• TWO CAR CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($518/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Vander — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#645 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 125% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,468 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,248
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Waycross Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-11%)	16mo	$140,000	$104	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $125,262
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.82×
• Total profit: $366,656
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28312

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,905 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,254/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,850

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4243 Cinder Ln Fayetteville, NC	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,085	$0.97	13d	1	1.32mi
1511 Percheron Path Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1784	$1,750	$0.98	13d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-14
   soldstatus $345,000
2. 2026-02-15
   status Pending 59-char remark

   Show marketing remark (59 chars)

   The property next door can be purchased with this property.

3. 2026-02-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (59 chars)

   The property next door can be purchased with this property.

4. 2026-02-06
   price $125,000 59-char remark

   Show marketing remark (59 chars)

   The property next door can be purchased with this property.

5. 2026-01-26
   listed $100,000 Active 59-char remark

   Show marketing remark (59 chars)

   The property next door can be purchased with this property.

6. 2026-01-26
   price $225,000

   Show marketing remark (59 chars)

   The property next door can be purchased with this property.

7. 2026-01-26
   price $350,000

   Show marketing remark (59 chars)

   The property next door can be purchased with this property.

8. 2025-12-01
   listed $495,000 Active
9. 2019-05-20
   soldstatus $132,378
10. 2013-01-07
    soldstatus $148,000
11. 1994-04-21
    soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,254 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,254 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,254
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
• − Management: −$1,828
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$799
• After-tax cash flow: $1,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Vander

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #23450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vander, NC
• Population (ZIP): 19,889

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.75%
• Current HPI: 306.7749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+414.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $345,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-15 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-02-15 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $125,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $100,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $225,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $350,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $495,000 LPRMLS
• 2019-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $132,378 Public Records
• 2013-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 1994-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,254 · +30.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.