1206 Poseidon Dr

Gregory, TX 78374

$257,999D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Pending · 197 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,160/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax + insurance: −$430
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-921/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $72,240

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-921/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#248 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gregory-Portland ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #314 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 537 students, 63% FRL); Gregory-Portland Middle (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 1,124 students, 48% FRL); Gregory-Portland H S (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 1,464 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.