413 N Hayden Bay Dr

Portland, OR 97217

$220,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Pending · 234 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$540
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-310/mo
• Annual: $-3,717/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.74%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (20.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#72 in OR, #3,256 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Portland SD 1J (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #23 of 183 in OR (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Faubion Elementary School (610 students, 73% FRL); Da Vinci Middle School (434 students, 34% FRL); Benson Polytechnic High School (824 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 37% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 306 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,041 units permitted in Multnomah County in 2024 (905 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Multnomah County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $220k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.2% in Portland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.