609 Hickory 1 St

Hughes Springs, TX 75656

$139,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,225 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,092/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-158/mo
• Annual: $-1,897/yr
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.87%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (21.4% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#257 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hughes Springs ISD (town): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #296 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Springs El (math 41% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 535 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cass County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 12 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.