609 Hickory 1 St · Hughes Springs, TX 75656

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,225 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1960 0.28 ac lot $62/sqft · 12% below area Est $141k · at est. ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful home in Hughes Springs! Studio Apt included, faces Elm St. Brick home, large Primary. greenhouse and storage in back yard.

Key facts

• Storage
• Studio apt
• Greenhouse

Tags

• TWO RESIDENCES
• STUDIO APT
• GREENHOUSE
• STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, Single Family Residence; County: Cass; Country: United States
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage or covered parking; No carport
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached property; One story; Built in 1960
• Construction: Built in 1960
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (about 0.282 acres); Subdivision: Williamson

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Kitchen island; One living area; Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#257 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hughes Springs ISD (town): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #296 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Springs El (math 41% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 535 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Cass County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,233 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.87%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,874
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 6.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $27,316
• Equity at exit: $84,400

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $89,136
• Equity at exit: $150,546

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75656

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,092 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,810/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,292

Max offer price $111,074

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-79	-5% $-119	+0% $-158	+5% $-197	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-201	+0% $-158	+5% $-115	+10% $-72
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-123	base $-158	+0.5pp $-194	+1.0pp $-231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 16 DOM

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Wonderful home in Hughes Springs! Studio Apt included, faces Elm St. Brick home, large Primary. greenhouse and storage in back yard.

9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $139,000 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Wonderful home in Hughes Springs! Studio Apt included, faces Elm St. Brick home, large Primary. greenhouse and storage in back yard.

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $149,900 Active 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Wonderful home in Hughes Springs! Studio Apt included, faces Elm St. Brick home, large Primary. greenhouse and storage in back yard.

18. 2025-10-23
    listed $125,000 Active
19. 2025-10-07
    historical
20. 2025-09-23
    listed $169,500 Active
21. 2025-09-23
    listed $169,500 Active
22. 2025-09-11
    historical
23. 2025-08-11
    price $129,000
24. 2025-08-11
    status Active
25. 2025-07-31
    status Pending
26. 2025-07-31
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2025-07-14
    price $139,000
28. 2025-06-07
    price $149,000
29. 2025-05-26
    listed $155,000 Active
30. 2025-01-28
    listed $169,500 Active
31. 2025-01-16
    listed $169,500 Active
32. 2024-09-28
    historical
33. 2024-09-10
    price $169,500
34. 2024-08-30
    price $170,000
35. 2024-08-29
    price $169,500
36. 2024-08-28
    price $169,500
37. 2024-08-12
    price $170,000
38. 2024-08-07
    price $170,000
39. 2024-07-15
    listed $179,000 Active
40. 2024-07-14
    listed $179,000 Active
41. 2024-07-02
    historical
42. 2024-04-12
    listed $165,000 Active
43. 2023-12-08
    soldstatus
44. 2020-08-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,810 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,810 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,810
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,049
• − Management: −$1,049
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$4,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,038
• After-tax cash flow: $-859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hughes Springs ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823850
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,202
• Composite: 37.19/100
• National rank: #4474
• State rank: #296 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hughes Springs

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #5944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hughes Springs, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,657

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,998 people
• By 2030: 29,583 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 28,512 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 27,230 · -9.2%
• By 2075: 24,917 · -16.9%
• By 2100: 21,582 · -28.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 18% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.7) · D 17.0% · R 82.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.2pp toward R · 2008: -40.4pp · 2024: -65.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.7 2020: R+59.1 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+49.5 2008: R+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.66%
• Current HPI: 158.9983
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $135,000 GTAR
• 2026-05-24 Listed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $139,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-25 Listed $149,900 GTAR
• 2025-10-23 Listed $125,000 LAAR
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $169,500 LAAR
• 2025-09-23 Listed $169,500 NTREIS
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $129,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-11 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-07-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-07-31 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-26 Listed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-28 Listed $169,500 LAAR
• 2025-01-16 Listed $169,500 GTAR
• 2024-09-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $169,500 GTAR
• 2024-08-30 Price Changed $170,000 GTAR
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $169,500 NTREIS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $169,500 GTAR
• 2024-08-12 Price Changed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $170,000 GTAR
• 2024-07-15 Listed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-14 Listed $179,000 GTAR
• 2024-07-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-12 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,810 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.