253 Opequon Ave

Winchester, VA 22601

$188,500C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$989
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $124/mo
• Annual: $1,492/yr
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.83%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $52,780

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (9.8% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $170k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#138 in VA, #4,429 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F.
• Winchester City Public School District (urban): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #73 of 131 in VA (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John Kerr Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 526 students, 77% FRL); Daniel Morgan Middle (math 60% / reading 66%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 613 students, 76% FRL); John Handley High (math 54% / reading 78%, grade B, #200 of 319 statewide, top 64%, 1,384 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 52% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 96% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Winchester city in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winchester County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.