253 Opequon Ave · Winchester, VA 22601

$188,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1956 Est $306k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 1-bath single-level home with 938 square feet, a full basement, located at 253 Opequon Ave in Winchester. This property needs a complete renovation, making it a solid opportunity for investors or buyers looking to customize a home to their vision. A new roof has already been installed, providing a head start on improvements. The full basement offers added storage and potential for future finishing. Conveniently located near downtown Winchester, shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, the property offers easy access to everyday amenities. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1956
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (2 spaces); Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Building not winterized; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Basement with daylight windows, full height, interior access, outside/side entrance, walkout stairs, and connecting stairway
• Exterior features: Sidewalks

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heat; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Drywall walls and ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#138 in VA, #4,429 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F.
• Winchester City Public School District (urban): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #73 of 131 in VA (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John Kerr Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 526 students, 77% FRL); Daniel Morgan Middle (math 60% / reading 66%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 613 students, 76% FRL); John Handley High (math 54% / reading 78%, grade B, #200 of 319 statewide, top 64%, 1,384 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 52% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 96% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Winchester city in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winchester County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,026 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.83%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,372
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
253 Opequon Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,266 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$138	94
101 Molden Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-0%)	2mo	$360,000	$286	68
249 West Street St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,196 (-6%)	3mo	$349,900	$293	62
239 Chestnut St	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,176 (-7%)	4mo	$270,000	$230	62
376 Charles St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,232 (-3%)	4mo	$175,000	$142	61
19 W Germain St	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,280 (+1%)	2mo	$337,000	$263	60
423 Shenandoah Pl	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,118 (-12%)	3mo	$310,000	$277	59
1116 Opequon Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-7%)	5mo	$285,000	$242	58
510 N Pleasant Valley Rd	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,227 (-3%)	1mo	$295,000	$240	57
423 Highland Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+3%)	5mo	$270,000	$208	49
96 Molden Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,416 (+12%)	7mo	$349,000	$246	49
715 Berryville Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,426 (+13%)	5mo	$340,000	$238	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-21,652
• Equity at exit: $28,106

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,616
• Equity at exit: $16,298

Cash invested: $52,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22601

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$989
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,821/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,543

Max offer price $188,500

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $178	+0% $124	+5% $71	+10% $18
Rent	-10% $-10	-5% $57	+0% $124	+5% $192	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $172	base $124	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,125
• Closing costs: $5,655
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
228 Opequon Ave Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	0.06mi
352 Opequon Ave Winchester, VA	3.0	1.0	1021	$1,700	$1.67	45d	1	0.15mi
30 N Euclid Ave Winchester, VA	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,000	$1.23	45d	1	0.34mi
224 East St Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,395	$1.22	45d	1	0.42mi
220 Kimberly Way Winchester, VA	2.0	2.5	1080	$1,450	$1.34	45d	1	0.43mi
28 E Pall Mall St Winchester, VA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	45d	1	0.54mi
6 E Cecil St Winchester, VA	2.0	1.5	1369	$2,100	$1.53	45d	1	0.55mi
2 E Germain St Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,400	$1.47	45d	1	0.57mi
104 S Loudoun St #2 Winchester, VA	2.0	2.0	1150	$2,200	$1.91	45d	1	0.58mi
313 N Kent St Winchester, VA	2.0	1.5	1438	$1,650	$1.15	45d	1	0.66mi
320 N Kent St Unit B Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	45d	1	0.66mi
321 N Kent St Winchester, VA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,950	$1.52	45d	1	0.68mi
412 Diehl St Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	1693	$1,400	$0.83	45d	1	0.68mi
532 N Pleasant Valley Rd Unit POPLAR2 QUICK DELV Winchester, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,200	$1.53	45d	1	0.73mi
1016 Franklin St Unit 3 Winchester, VA	2.0	1.5	1142	$1,498	$1.31	45d	1	0.74mi
647 Laurelwood Cir Winchester, VA	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,150	$1.48	45d	1	0.77mi
1105 Franklin St Unit 1105 Winchester, VA	2.0	1.5	1047	$1,650	$1.58	45d	1	0.78mi
230 Spring St Winchester, VA	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1042	$2,433	$2.33	7d	1	0.82mi
21 S Stewart St Unit 4 Winchester, VA	2.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	45d	1	0.86mi
21 S Stewart St Unit 2 Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.86mi
609 Smithfield Ave Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	976	$1,575	$1.61	45d	1	0.90mi
342 Fairmont Ave Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,525	$1.47	45d	1	0.93mi
350 Fairmont Ave Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,500	$1.43	45d	1	0.95mi
570 N Cameron St Winchester, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1215	$1,467	$1.21	45d	1	1.01mi
540 Bellview Ave Winchester, VA	3.0	1.0	1280	$1,850	$1.45	45d	1	1.39mi
122 Morningside Dr Winchester, VA	3.0	1.0	1248	$2,195	$1.76	45d	1	1.42mi
22 Jackson Ave Unit 1 Winchester, VA	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,325	$1.32	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $188,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,559
• − Property taxes: −$1,821
• − Insurance: −$942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$5,484
• Taxable loss: −$1,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$400
• After-tax cash flow: $1,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winchester City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104050
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,544
• Composite: 48.23/100
• National rank: #2164
• State rank: #73 of 131 in VA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #4429

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living B Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, VA
• County: Winchester City · 29,230 people
• City population: 62,070
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• Population (ZIP): 29,230
• Household income: $64,258
• Rent vs Own: 56.2% rent · 43.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1627.0

Population outlook (Winchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,693 people
• By 2030: 30,745 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 32,619 · +9.9%
• By 2050: 34,014 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 35,490 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 35,424 · +19.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winchester

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.2% · R 44.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.4pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+11.5 2016: D+3.5 2012: D+1.4 2008: D+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -245.80%
• Current HPI: 297.2882
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $188,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,821 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.