3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,212 sqft ·
Built 1939
· Townhouse
· Active
· 30 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,820/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,154
Tax + insurance
−$367
HOA
−$353
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$382
Net cashflow
$-436/mo
Annual
$-5,228/yr
Cap rate
3.92%
Cash-on-cash
-8.49%
DSCR
0.62
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$61,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-436 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (28.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (17.3% below list).
It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $157k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in LA, #1,383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D.
Orleans Parish (urban): math 11% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #69 of 98 in LA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Benjamin Franklin Elem. Math And Science (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #479 of 646 statewide, top 75%, 747 students, 98% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 68% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 466 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 710 units permitted in Orleans Parish in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orleans County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
17 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 14094% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MV6QKH6YZPTRDS
· Data 1 month agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29