Aria Plan

Rossville, GA 30741

$278,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 191 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,876/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,616
• Tax + insurance: −$514
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-647/mo
• Annual: $-7,768/yr
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.00%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $86,283

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (32.7% below list).
• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#484 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Walker County (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #114 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stone Creek Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 425 students, 84% FRL); Rossville Middle School (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #368 of 470 statewide, top 79%, 444 students, 81% FRL); Ridgeland High School (math 23% / reading 19%, grade F, #225 of 424 statewide, top 54%, 1,244 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 61% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 347 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walker County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.