Aria Plan · Rossville, GA 30741

$278,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily · 191 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Aria floor plan is now available in Rossville, GA at our Timber Creek community. This single-level split floorplan features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, with a spacious area of 1,618 square feet. The primary bedroom includes a large walk-in closet and a comfortable bathroom. The open-concept design of the kitchen, living, and dining areas gives the home an even more spacious and welcoming feel. The kitchen is equipped with a beautiful island that comes with countertop seating, perfect for entertaining. Additionally, the plan includes a covered patio at the back of the house. A laundry room is conveniently located off the foyer for easy access. * D. R. Horton is an Equal Housing Opportunity Builder. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities, are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Images may contain virtual staging.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Walk-in closet
• Laundry room

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO
• LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $278,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,152.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#484 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Walker County (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #114 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stone Creek Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 425 students, 84% FRL); Rossville Middle School (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #368 of 470 statewide, top 79%, 444 students, 81% FRL); Ridgeland High School (math 23% / reading 19%, grade F, #225 of 424 statewide, top 54%, 1,244 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 61% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 347 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,628 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.00%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,152
• List price: $278,990
• Delta: -9.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Quarter Street St	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+8%)	2mo	$286,000	$164	78
70 Draft St	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+8%)	5mo	$287,500	$164	75
70 Draft St	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+8%)	5mo	$287,500	$164	75
57 Quarter St	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,765 (+9%)	4mo	$312,600	$177	72
300 Draft Street St	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+8%)	2mo	$274,210	$157	69
334 Draft Street St	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+8%)	3mo	$291,815	$167	67
140 Saddlebred Way	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-1%)	4mo	$255,900	$160	60
307 Draft Street St	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,821 (+12%)	2mo	$284,900	$156	59
245 Overbrook Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,419 (-12%)	0mo	$307,000	$216	58
300 Morning Side Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,792 (+11%)	1mo	$330,000	$184	58
148 Saddlebred Way	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,825 (+13%)	5mo	$260,000	$142	34
148 Saddlebred Way	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,825 (+13%)	5mo	$260,000	$142	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-82,376
• Equity at exit: $45,947

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-85,317
• Equity at exit: $26,643

Cash invested: $86,283 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.4 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,025 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 129 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30741

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,876 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,616
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,622/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,696

Max offer price $214,486

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-434	-5% $-541	+0% $-647	+5% $-754	+10% $-860
Rent	-10% $-796	-5% $-721	+0% $-647	+5% $-573	+10% $-499
Rate	-1.0pp $-492	-0.5pp $-569	base $-647	+0.5pp $-727	+1.0pp $-808

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,038
• Closing costs: $9,245
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Draught St Rossville, GA	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2055	$1,895	$0.92	63d	1	0.29mi
115 Saddlebred Way Rossville, GA	4.0	2.5	1825	$2,145	$1.18	63d	1	0.73mi
114 Saddlebred Way Rossville, GA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,295	$1.43	93d	1	0.73mi
114 Saddlebred Way Rossville, GA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,295	$1.43	72d	1	0.73mi
81 Saddlebred Way Unit NA Rossville, GA	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,149	$0.99	93d	1	0.75mi
1512 Wilson Rd Rossville, GA	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,295	$1.18	72d	1	0.83mi
1512 Wilson Rd Rossville, GA	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,250	$1.14	63d	1	0.83mi
110 2nd St Rossville, GA	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,399	$1.20	63d	1	1.27mi
106 Champion Rd Rossville, GA	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,675	$1.52	72d	1	1.34mi
106 Champion Rd Rossville, GA	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,675	$1.52	93d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $278,990 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $278,990 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $278,990 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $278,990 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $278,990 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $278,990 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $278,990 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $278,990 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $278,990 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $278,990 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $278,990 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $278,990 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $278,990 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $278,990 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $278,990 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $278,990 Active 170 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $278,990 Active 168 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $278,990 Active 167 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $278,990 Active 166 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $278,990 Active 165 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $278,990 Active 164 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $278,990 Active 163 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $278,990 Active 162 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $278,990 Active 161 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $278,990 Active 160 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $278,990 Active 159 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $278,990 Active 158 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $278,990 Active 157 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $278,990 Active 156 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $278,990 Active 155 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $278,990 Active 154 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $278,990 Active 153 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $278,990 Active 152 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $278,990 Active 151 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $278,990 Active 150 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $278,990 Active 149 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $278,990 Active 148 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $278,990 Active 146 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $278,990 Active 144 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $278,990 Active 143 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $278,990 Active 140 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $278,990 Active 139 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $278,990 Active 138 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $278,990 Active 137 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $278,990 Active 135 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $278,990 Active 134 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $278,990 Active 132 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $278,990 Active 131 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $278,990 Active 130 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $278,990 Active 129 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,261
• − Property taxes: −$4,622
• − Insurance: −$1,541
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,801
• − Management: −$1,801
• − Depreciation: −$8,964
• Taxable loss: −$13,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,234
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Fairview, GA is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New countertops in kitchen — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures throughout — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stone Creek Elementary School F GA #810/1,228 Nat'l #32,000/41,679 Middle Rossville Middle School F GA #368/470 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Ridgeland High School F GA #225/424 Nat'l #13,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walker County
• NCES district ID: 1305370
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,889
• Composite: 22.74/100
• National rank: #8035
• State rank: #114 of 174 in GA

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Rossville

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #484
• US rank: #22540

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walker County · 66,050 people
• City population: 30,041
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 30,041
• Household income: $58,834
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,050 people
• By 2030: 64,305 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 60,127 · -9.0%
• By 2050: 55,551 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 44,886 · -32.0%
• By 2100: 34,015 · -48.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 20.1% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+59.3 2016: R+61.5 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.05%
• Current HPI: 267.0047
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.44%
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $278,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Listed $303,990 Zillow