4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,432 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 116 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,550/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$786
Tax + insurance
−$250
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$326
Net cashflow
$189/mo
Annual
$2,265/yr
Cap rate
7.80%
Cash-on-cash
5.40%
DSCR
1.24
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$41,972
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#151 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Fort Smith School District (urban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #106 of 238 in AR (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Dora Kimmons Jr. High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #156 of 201 statewide, top 78%, 841 students, 91% FRL); Northside High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #239 of 292 statewide, top 85%, 2,433 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 64% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 37% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Smith School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 388 units permitted in Sebastian County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sebastian County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $60k; list at $150k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.3% in Fort Smith — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MVFS8C11JQ1RE0
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29