21269 Bracewell Rd

Bedias, TX 77831

$175,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 356 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,228/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-175/mo
• Annual: $-2,097/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.28%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (29.8% below list).
• It's been on market 356 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,601 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Madisonville CISD (town): math 53% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Madisonville El (700 students, 80% FRL); Madisonville J H (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 546 students, 71% FRL); Madisonville H S (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 695 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.8% in Bedias — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 356 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.