21269 Bracewell Rd · Bedias, TX 77831

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 356 Days on market

Built 1997 5.36 ac lot $146/sqft · 31% below area Est $255k · 31% under ↓ 12% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for a piece of property in an unrestricted area, quiet neighborhood, with city water, scattered trees, wooded area in the back where you can observe wildlife you must take a look at this land. The house on the property is in need of many repairs. The house has 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, living area, kitchen and dining area. There is a paved county-maintained road to the property which is located at the end of the street.

Key facts

• Observe wildlife
• City water
• Scattered trees

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• CITY WATER
• SCATTERED TREES
• WOODED AREA
• OBSERVE WILDLIFE
• PAVED COUNTY MAINTAINED ROAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.8% in Bedias — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,601 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Madisonville CISD (town): math 53% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Madisonville El (700 students, 80% FRL); Madisonville J H (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 546 students, 71% FRL); Madisonville H S (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 695 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 356 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,769 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 356 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.28%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,989
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -31.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4689 Oak Rdg	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,168 (-3%)	12mo	$199,250	$171	66
21692 Harrison Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,218 (+2%)	15mo	$275,000	$226	63
21479 Harrison Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,200 (0%)	23mo	$166,000	$138	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-39,508
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-48,819
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77831

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,848/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,449

Max offer price $144,133

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-76	-5% $-125	+0% $-175	+5% $-224	+10% $-274
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-223	+0% $-175	+5% $-126	+10% $-78
Rate	-1.0pp $-87	-0.5pp $-130	base $-175	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $175,000 Active 356 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 354 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 353 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 352 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 351 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 350 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 348 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 347 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 345 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 344 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 343 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 342 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 337 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 336 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 335 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 334 DOM
17. 2026-03-17
    price $175,000 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    If you are looking for a piece of property in an unrestricted area, quiet neighborhood, with city water, scattered trees, wooded area in the back where you can observe wildlife you must take a look at this land. The house on the property is in need of many repairs. The house has 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, living area, kitchen and dining area. There is a paved county-maintained road to the property which is located at the end of the street.

18. 2025-06-30
    listed $199,500 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    If you are looking for a piece of property in an unrestricted area, quiet neighborhood, with city water, scattered trees, wooded area in the back where you can observe wildlife you must take a look at this land. The house on the property is in need of many repairs. The house has 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, living area, kitchen and dining area. There is a paved county-maintained road to the property which is located at the end of the street.

19. 2006-10-16
    soldstatus
20. 2006-10-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,848 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,355/yr (+$113/mo · 73.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,848
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$5,241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,258
• After-tax cash flow: $-839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madisonville CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828710
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,234
• Composite: 43.02/100
• National rank: #3102
• State rank: #177 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bedias

• Score: 40/100
• State rank: #1601
• US rank: #27239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,163

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 240.0197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listed $199,500 HARMLS
• 2006-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,848 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.