40 Mt Guardian Rd

Woodstock, NY 12409

$2,399,000D-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,790 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,581
• Tax + insurance: −$3,598
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $-6,699/mo
• Annual: $-80,387/yr
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.97%
• DSCR: 0.47
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $671,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.40M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-80k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.22M (49.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.20M (50.0% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.33M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.20M (50.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#205 in NY, #3,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodstock Elementary School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A, #289 of 2,108 statewide, top 15%, 149 students, 40% FRL); Onteora Middle School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #666 of 729 statewide, top 93%, 171 students, 44% FRL); Onteora High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 413 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $285k; list at $2.40M implies a 742% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$182k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.