40 Mt Guardian Rd · Woodstock, NY 12409

$2,399,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,790 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2011 3.33 ac lot $633/sqft · at area comps Est $3484k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Guardian House is a private mountain retreat set into the wooded hills of Bearsville, designed by renowned Woodstock architect Barry Price and rebuilt in 2011 to live in harmony with its surroundings. Thoughtful, restrained, and deeply connected to the landscape, the home feels both grounded and elevated, a place meant for retreat, reflection, and gathering. Wrapped in forest and framed by long mountain views, the house unfolds across multiple levels, with light pouring in through expansive windows and doors that blur the line between indoors and out. Natural materials anchor the interiors, creating a sense of warmth and calm that feels equally suited to winter weekends by the fire or long

Key facts

• 3.33 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport (2 spaces); Detached heated garage (2-car); Driveway; Garage
• Security: Security system; Video cameras
• Utilities: Electric service by Central Hudson; Propane; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Trash collection (private); Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Finished walk-out basement
• Construction: Frame construction with HardiPlank siding; Advanced framing technique; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Private fenced in-ground pool with cover (vinyl); Spa; Landscaped yard; Partially wooded lot; Back yard; Private setting with views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator; Wine refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Propane heating; Radiant heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; In-law floorplan; Kitchen island; Marble countertops; Natural woodwork; Open floorplan; Primary bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Blinds; Oversized windows; Patio, porch and screened porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Dryer; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.40M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-80k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.22M (49.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.20M (50.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.20M (50.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#205 in NY, #3,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodstock Elementary School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A, #289 of 2,108 statewide, top 15%, 149 students, 40% FRL); Onteora Middle School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #666 of 729 statewide, top 93%, 171 students, 44% FRL); Onteora High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 413 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$182k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.33M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $285k; list at $2.40M implies a 742% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,200,000 (50.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.97%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,484,120
• List price: $2,399,000
• Delta: -31.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-222,187
• Equity at exit: $988,845

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-84,728
• Equity at exit: $1,457,441

Cash invested: $671,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12409

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,581
• Tax from tax record: −$2,599 /mo · $31,185/yr
• Insurance: −$1,000
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $-6,699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $20,480

Max offer price $1,215,604

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $599,750
• Closing costs: $71,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
206 Hutchin Hill Rd Bearsville, NY	3.0	2.5	4400	$12,000	$2.73	44d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $2,399,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,399,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,399,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,399,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,399,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $2,399,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $2,399,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,399,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,399,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,399,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $2,399,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,399,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,399,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,399,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $2,399,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $2,399,000 Active 1961-char remark
17. 2026-05-15
    historical $2,399,000 1961-char remark
18. 1997-11-14
    soldstatus $285,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $31,185 · $2,599/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $35,864 · $2,989/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,679/yr (+$390/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$134,381
• − Property taxes: −$31,185
• − Insurance: −$11,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − Depreciation: −$69,789
• Taxable loss: −$126,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$30,334
• After-tax cash flow: $-50,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onteora Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621840
• Math proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $56,997
• Composite: 52.17/100
• National rank: #3482
• State rank: #288 of 755 in NY

Livability — Woodstock

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #3176

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment D Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,530
• Population (ZIP): 877

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Scotch-Irish 8% Romanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Chinese 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.33%
• Current HPI: 304.4079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+741.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $2,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $2,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $31,185 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.