100 Ocean Trail Way #204

Jupiter, FL 33477

$550,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 1982 · Condo · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,846/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$1,045
• HOA: −$2,145
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,228
• Net cashflow: $-1,456/mo
• Annual: $-17,473/yr
• Cap rate: 3.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.83%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $154,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (46.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $550k).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $293k (46.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#415 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $550k implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.7% in Jupiter — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $5,846/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 445% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?