100 Ocean Trail Way #204 · Jupiter, FL 33477

$550,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Condo public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1982 $2145/mo HOA · 36% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Turn this condo into your own coastal haven. This 2 bedroom / 2 bath oceanfront condo on Jupiter Beach is waiting for the new owner. Ocean Trail is a beachside community with private access to the beach and to the Jupiter Beach Resort next door. Close to many of Jupiter's main attractions, waterside dining, sports fishing, golf, theatre, shopping. Ocean Trail offers 9 tennis courts on their private premises with active pickleball and tennis games.

Key facts

• $2,145 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee; Association amenities include elevator(s), fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball courts, trails, storage, manager on site, community room, trash chute, on-site management, parking, street lights, internet included; HOA covers cable TV, insurance, grounds maintenance, security, sewer, trash, water, common areas, common real estate tax, elevator

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Attached 1-car garage; 1 covered space (total 2 parking spaces)
• Security: Gated community with guard; Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story
• Construction: Concrete/CBS construction
• Exterior features: Waterfront property; East of US-1 road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central individual heating; Central individual cooling
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (43.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $550k).
• Recommended offer: $314k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.6% in Jupiter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#415 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,995/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 445% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $550k implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $313,512 (43.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.91%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.93% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $12,078
• Equity at exit: $245,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $226,213
• Equity at exit: $375,995

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33477

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$750 /mo · $8,996/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$2,145
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,259
• Net cashflow: $-1,339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,689

Max offer price $313,512

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Ocean Trail Way #609 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$8,500	$7.26	24d	1	0.02mi
100 Ocean Trail Way Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$4,000	$3.42	24d	1	0.02mi
500 Ocean Trail Way Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1523	$6,150	$4.04	24d	1	0.07mi
200 Ocean Trail Way #1105 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$4,100	$3.50	24d	1	0.10mi
200 Ocean Trail Way #609 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$9,500	$8.12	24d	1	0.10mi
200 Ocean Trail Way #1108 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$10,000	$8.55	10d	1	0.10mi
200 Ocean Trail Way #1108 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$10,000	$8.55	20d	1	0.10mi
200 Ocean Trail Way #1107 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$4,250	$3.63	24d	1	0.10mi
200 Ocean Trail Way #407 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$8,500	$7.26	22d	1	0.10mi
200 Ocean Trail Way #609 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$9,500	$8.12	10d	1	0.10mi
300 Ocean Trail Way #907 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$5,500	$4.70	24d	1	0.15mi
300 Ocean Trail Way #308 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$3,800	$3.25	18d	1	0.15mi
300 Ocean Trail Way #607 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$9,500	$8.12	24d	1	0.15mi
300 Ocean Trail Way #702 Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.0	1170	$13,000	$11.11	24d	1	0.15mi
300 Ocean Trail Way #403 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$3,450	$2.95	18d	1	0.15mi
300 Ocean Trail Way #602 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$3,500	$2.99	24d	1	0.15mi
300 Ocean Trail Way #702 Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.0	1170	$13,000	$11.11	10d	1	0.15mi
300 Ocean Trail Way #903 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$6,000	$5.13	20d	1	0.15mi
300 Ocean Trail Way #410 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$4,500	$3.54	5d	1	0.15mi
300 Ocean Trail Way #1202 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$4,500	$3.85	24d	1	0.15mi
300 Ocean Trail Way #510 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$8,500	$6.69	15d	1	0.15mi
400 Ocean Trail Way #401 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$11,000	$8.66	24d	1	0.23mi
400 Ocean Trail Way #401 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$11,000	$8.66	10d	1	0.23mi
400 Ocean Trail Way #101 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$4,500	$3.54	24d	1	0.23mi
400 Ocean Trail Way #804 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,950	$2.52	24d	1	0.23mi
400 Ocean Trail Way #707 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$8,500	$7.26	24d	1	0.23mi
400 Ocean Trail Way #804 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,950	$2.52	22d	1	0.23mi
803 Clubhouse Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$2,500	$1.95	24d	1	0.32mi
131 Palm Ave #36 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1321	$3,700	$2.80	24d	1	0.32mi
275 Palm Ave Jupiter, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1075	$5,800	$5.40	5d	6	0.34mi
275 Palm Ave Jupiter, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1075	$5,800	$5.40	3d	6	0.34mi
275 Palm Ave Jupiter, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1075	$5,800	$5.40	8d	6	0.34mi
404 Clubhouse Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$3,500	$2.73	15d	1	0.34mi
404 Clubhouse Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$7,500	$5.86	24d	1	0.34mi
820 Bella Vista Ct S #20 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1138	$3,200	$2.81	24d	1	0.45mi
4105 Fairway Dr N Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1195	$6,500	$5.44	24d	1	0.45mi
3108 Fairway Dr N Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$7,000	$5.20	24d	1	0.45mi
2403 Fairway Dr N Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1195	$4,000	$3.35	24d	1	0.45mi
3602 Fairway Dr N Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$3,700	$2.75	24d	1	0.45mi
2707 Fairway Dr N Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1195	$2,800	$2.34	24d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $2,145 · $25,740/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $550,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $550,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $550,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $550,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $550,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $550,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $550,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $550,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $550,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $550,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $550,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-04-30
    price $550,000
13. 2026-04-02
    price $575,000
14. 2026-03-12
    price $610,000
15. 2026-02-09
    listed $625,000 Active
16. 2018-06-25
    historical
17. 2018-04-02
    price $364,000
18. 2017-10-11
    price $369,000
19. 2017-06-19
    price $379,000
20. 2017-05-18
    listed $389,000 Active
21. 2016-10-27
    historical
22. 2016-04-20
    price $395,000
23. 2015-11-11
    price $405,000
24. 2015-06-10
    listed $415,000 Active
25. 2010-01-30
    historical
26. 2009-03-07
    listed $379,900
27. 2009-03-06
    historical
28. 2008-07-14
    listed $399,000
29. 1997-01-29
    soldstatus $120,000
30. 1997-01-29
    soldstatus $120,000
31. 1981-07-01
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,996 · $750/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,996 · $750/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$8,996
• − Insurance: −$3,548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,755
• − Management: −$5,755
• − HOA: −$25,740
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$24,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,920
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jupiter

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #415
• US rank: #7386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jupiter, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 68,420
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,908
• Household income: $104,992
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 445.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Current HPI: 356.212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.27%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $550,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $575,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $610,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $625,000 Beaches MLS
• 2018-06-25 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2018-04-02 Price Changed $364,000 Beaches MLS
• 2017-10-11 Price Changed $369,000 Beaches MLS
• 2017-06-19 Price Changed $379,000 Beaches MLS
• 2017-05-18 Listed $389,000 Beaches MLS
• 2016-10-27 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2016-04-20 Price Changed $395,000 Beaches MLS
• 2015-11-11 Price Changed $405,000 Beaches MLS
• 2015-06-10 Listed $415,000 Beaches MLS
• 2010-01-30 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2009-03-07 Listed $379,900 Beaches MLS
• 2009-03-06 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2008-07-14 Listed $399,000 Beaches MLS
• 1997-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1997-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1981-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,996 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.