3028-3032 E Presidio Rd

Tucson, AZ 85716

$469,000F

15 bd · 9.0 ba · 2,243 sqft · Built 1979 · MultiFamily · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,459
• Tax + insurance: −$439
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-471/mo
• Annual: $-5,654/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.31%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $131,320

Investor read

• This is a 2×2bd/1.0ba + 1×1bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $469k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-471 ($-6k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-157/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (34.5% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $307k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Blenman Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,064 of 1,109 statewide, top 97%, 267 students, 78% FRL); Doolen Middle School (math 11% / reading 17%, grade F, #164 of 218 statewide, top 76%, 538 students, 67% FRL); Sabino High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 381 statewide, top 28%, 862 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $249k; list at $469k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,073/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 2241% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?