407 Main St

Baldwin, LA 70514

$63,000B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 806 sqft · Built 1938 · SingleFamily · Active · 246 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $830/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $246/mo
• Annual: $2,951/yr
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.73%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $17,640

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $63k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($830 rent vs $63k).
• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($436 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#334 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary Parish (town): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #37 of 98 in LA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in St. Mary Parish in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Mary County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.