407 Main St · Baldwin, LA 70514

$63,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 806 sqft · SingleFamily · 246 Days on market

Built 1938 6,098 sqft lot $78/sqft · 33% below area Est $94k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for an investment property or a first home to add your personal touch? This Main Street property is ready for its new owner! Easy access to the local boat ramp and a short drive for gaming and dining. All new appliances, including oversized stackable front-load washer/dryer and a tankless water heater. All measurements and flood zone classification to be verified by the buyer.

Key facts

• Local boat ramp
• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• LOCAL BOAT RAMP
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $63k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($830 rent vs $63k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#334 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary Parish (town): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #37 of 98 in LA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in St. Mary Parish in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($436 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Mary County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.73%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,477
• List price: $63,000
• Delta: -33.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $23,250
• Equity at exit: $28,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.45×
• Total profit: $60,822
• Equity at exit: $43,656

Cash invested: $17,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70514

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $637/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $519

Max offer price $63,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $264	+0% $246	+5% $228	+10% $210
Rent	-10% $180	-5% $213	+0% $246	+5% $279	+10% $312
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $262	base $246	+0.5pp $230	+1.0pp $213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,750
• Closing costs: $1,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $63,000 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $63,000 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $63,000 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $63,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $63,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $63,000 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $63,000 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $63,000 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $63,000 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $63,000 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $63,000 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $63,000 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $63,000 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $63,000 Active 227 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $63,000 Active 226 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $63,000 Active 225 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    price $63,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Looking for an investment property or a first home to add your personal touch? This Main Street property is ready for its new owner! Easy access to the local boat ramp and a short drive for gaming and dining. All new appliances, including oversized stackable front-load washer/dryer and a tankless water heater. All measurements and flood zone classification to be verified by the buyer.

18. 2026-04-08
    price $63,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Looking for an investment property or a first home to add your personal touch? This Main Street property is ready for its new owner! Easy access to the local boat ramp and a short drive for gaming and dining. All new appliances, including oversized stackable front-load washer/dryer and a tankless water heater. All measurements and flood zone classification to be verified by the buyer.

19. 2026-01-09
    status Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Looking for an investment property or a first home to add your personal touch? This Main Street property is ready for its new owner! Easy access to the local boat ramp and a short drive for gaming and dining. All new appliances, including oversized stackable front-load washer/dryer and a tankless water heater. All measurements and flood zone classification to be verified by the buyer.

20. 2025-12-28
    historical Active Under Contract 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Looking for an investment property or a first home to add your personal touch? This Main Street property is ready for its new owner! Easy access to the local boat ramp and a short drive for gaming and dining. All new appliances, including oversized stackable front-load washer/dryer and a tankless water heater. All measurements and flood zone classification to be verified by the buyer.

21. 2025-11-29
    price $65,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Looking for an investment property or a first home to add your personal touch? This Main Street property is ready for its new owner! Easy access to the local boat ramp and a short drive for gaming and dining. All new appliances, including oversized stackable front-load washer/dryer and a tankless water heater. All measurements and flood zone classification to be verified by the buyer.

22. 2025-11-13
    price $65,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Looking for an investment property or a first home to add your personal touch? This Main Street property is ready for its new owner! Easy access to the local boat ramp and a short drive for gaming and dining. All new appliances, including oversized stackable front-load washer/dryer and a tankless water heater. All measurements and flood zone classification to be verified by the buyer.

23. 2025-09-10
    listed $78,000 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Looking for an investment property or a first home to add your personal touch? This Main Street property is ready for its new owner! Easy access to the local boat ramp and a short drive for gaming and dining. All new appliances, including oversized stackable front-load washer/dryer and a tankless water heater. All measurements and flood zone classification to be verified by the buyer.

24. 2025-09-10
    listed $78,000 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Looking for an investment property or a first home to add your personal touch? This Main Street property is ready for its new owner! Easy access to the local boat ramp and a short drive for gaming and dining. All new appliances, including oversized stackable front-load washer/dryer and a tankless water heater. All measurements and flood zone classification to be verified by the buyer.

25. 2014-10-01
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,529
• − Property taxes: −$637
• − Insurance: −$315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$797
• − Management: −$797
• − Depreciation: −$1,833
• Taxable income: $2,052
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$493
• After-tax cash flow: $2,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201620
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -40.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -33.00%
• Median HH income: $39,843
• Composite: 28.1/100
• National rank: #6828
• State rank: #37 of 98 in LA

Livability — Baldwin

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #334
• US rank: #22413

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baldwin, LA
• City population: 1,757
• Population (ZIP): 1,757

Population outlook (St. Mary County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,510 people
• By 2030: 47,570 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 43,880 · -11.4%
• By 2050: 40,655 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 37,190 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 38,101 · -23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 26% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.9) · D 33.5% · R 65.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -31.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.9 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+18.8 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+26.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $63,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $63,000 GSREIN
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — GSREIN
• 2025-12-28 Contingent — GSREIN
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $65,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $65,000 GSREIN
• 2025-09-10 Listed $78,000 GSREIN
• 2025-09-10 Listed $78,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2014-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $637 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.