1425 Second Ave #37

Chula Vista, CA 91911

$240,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,154 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Active · 162 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,075/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $984/mo
• Annual: $11,811/yr
• Cap rate: 11.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.58%
• DSCR: 1.78
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $984 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#127 in CA, #4,345 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Sweetwater Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 517 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Castle Park Middle (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #252 of 498 statewide, top 51%, 724 students, 80% FRL); Castle Park Senior High (math 30% / reading 56%, grade F, #460 of 1,170 statewide, top 40%, 1,433 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 53% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.7% in Chula Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.