5 Blossomwood Ct

Spanish Lake, MO 63033

$295,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,595 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,225/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-205/mo
• Annual: $-2,463/yr
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (24.6% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $223k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Townsend Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 371 students, 78% FRL); Central Middle (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #348 of 391 statewide, top 89%, 707 students, 68% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $295k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 8.1% in Spanish Lake — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.