5 Blossomwood Ct · Spanish Lake, MO 63033

$295,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,595 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1966 0.30 ac lot Est $288k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious move in ready ranch. Landscaped front entry that leads to a grand foyer linking to the separate dinning and family room with fire place. Kitchen boast custom cabinetry and gas stove. Additional living room with fire place and main floor laundry room. 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths and 1 half bath on the main floor. Finished basement with additional living area, fireplace, bar and full bath. House also has a bonus 4 seasons room!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Grand foyer
• Finished basement

Tags

• LANDSCAPED FRONT ENTRY
• GRAND FOYER
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• GAS STOVE
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Residential property

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available; Natural gas available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Three fireplaces (basement, family room, living room)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 8.1% in Spanish Lake — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Townsend Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 371 students, 78% FRL); Central Middle (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #348 of 391 statewide, top 89%, 707 students, 68% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $295k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,536 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,045
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12320 Missile Ln	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,542 (-2%)	3mo	$275,000	$108	70
12170 Killbrock Dr	0.31mi	4/3.5	2,655 (+2%)	11mo	$295,000	$111	69
6750 Foxshire Dr	0.49mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,634 (+2%)	3mo	$315,000	$120	66
6605 Hyde Park Dr	0.37mi	4/3.5	2,572 (-1%)	16mo	$289,900	$113	64
11775 Sheffield Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,730 (+5%)	14mo	$309,900	$114	54
6953 Parc Charlene Dr	0.38mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,861 (+10%)	12mo	$249,990	$87	49
6937 Jamestown Way Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,712 (+4%)	13mo	$298,000	$110	48
6919 Glenvale Ct	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,224 (-14%)	1mo	$274,900	$124	41
11971 Rosevalley Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,344 (-10%)	12mo	$258,610	$110	38
12265 Space Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,219 (-14%)	14mo	$279,900	$126	35
2 Gimlin Pl	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,214 (-15%)	2mo	$179,900	$81	33
2 Waterways Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,888 (+11%)	14mo	$269,900	$93	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $158,134
• Equity at exit: $265,759

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $501,595
• Equity at exit: $573,120

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,521/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,485

Max offer price $258,736

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-122	+0% $-205	+5% $-289	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-381	-5% $-293	+0% $-205	+5% $-117	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-130	base $-205	+0.5pp $-282	+1.0pp $-359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12303 Benham Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1845	$1,721	$0.93	0d	1	0.35mi
5364 Trailview Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	3.0	1992	$2,330	$1.17	24d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $295,000 Active
3. 2003-03-20
   soldstatus $155,000
4. 2001-12-28
   soldstatus $145,100
5. 1992-11-30
   soldstatus $124,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,521 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,521 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$3,521
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$7,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,841
• After-tax cash flow: $-622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+136.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $295,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $145,100 Public Records
• 1992-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $124,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,521 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.