3920 Eastwind Dr

Anchorage, AK 99516

$650,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,674 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$942
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,155
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-319/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-319/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $645k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $550k (15.4% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $550k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rabbit Creek Elementary (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #16 of 156 statewide, top 11%, 443 students, 16% FRL); Goldenview Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #3 of 36 statewide, top 9%, 626 students, 16% FRL); South Anchorage High School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #13 of 61 statewide, top 20%, 1,318 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools average 15% FRL vs 38% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Anchorage School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.