3920 Eastwind Dr · Anchorage, AK 99516

$650,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,674 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1994 8,309 sqft lot Est $636k · at est. $21/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Thoughtfully designed Hagmeier home in the sought-after Turnagain View Estates! Upon arrival, you're welcomed by a stunning curved staircase, soaring vaulted ceilings, an elegant formal living with gas fireplace and formal dining space. The spacious, updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and opens seamlessly to the inviting family room with cozy wood burning fireplace. Upstairs, you'll find four generously sized bedrooms, including a light-filled primary suite complete with an ensuite bath and two oversized walk-in closets. An additional fully rennovated full bathroom serves the remaining bedrooms. The main level offers a flexible office or fifth bedroom,

Key facts

• 8,309 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1994

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From New Seward Hwy, east on DeArmoun, left on Mainsail Dr, right on Eastwind Dr; home is on the left.
• HOA & community: Turnagain View Estates homeowners association; Association fee $250 per year

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Detached; Built in 1994
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Composition/shingle/asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Private yard; Landscaping; Storage; Covenant/restriction; In city limits; Fire service area; Road service area; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Disposal; Quartz counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Fireplace; Disposal; CO detector(s); Smoke detector(s); Vaulted ceilings; Family room; Window coverings; Quartz counters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-319/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $645k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $550k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $550k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rabbit Creek Elementary (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #16 of 156 statewide, top 11%, 443 students, 16% FRL); Goldenview Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #3 of 36 statewide, top 9%, 626 students, 16% FRL); South Anchorage High School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #13 of 61 statewide, top 20%, 1,318 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools average 15% FRL vs 38% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Anchorage School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $550,000 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $636,412
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3751 Eastwind Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,772 (+4%)	2mo	$750,000	$271	85
3928 Pyrenean Cir	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,650 (-1%)	3mo	$795,000	$300	82
3210 Starboard Ln	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,817 (+5%)	2mo	$590,000	$209	71
3040 Chesapeake Cir	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,855 (+7%)	5mo	$594,875	$208	64
3250 Legacy Dr	0.44mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,825 (+6%)	2mo	$649,900	$230	64
3914 Martagon Cir	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,982 (+12%)	7mo	$750,000	$252	63
2701 Kempton Hills Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,708 (+1%)	5mo	$640,000	$236	59
14800 Loc Loman Ln	0.72mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,665 (-0%)	0mo	$695,000	$261	59
12900 Monterey Cir	0.63mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,616 (-2%)	2mo	$624,900	$239	59
13620 Windward Cir	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,338 (-13%)	8mo	$530,000	$227	59
12820 Cumberland Cir	0.73mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,745 (+3%)	4mo	$629,000	$229	51
2841 Legacy Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,412 (-10%)	9mo	$575,000	$238	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-107,012
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-95,327
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99516

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$671 /mo · $8,053/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,155
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,534

Max offer price $645,305

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $341	-5% $157	+0% $-27	+5% $-211	+10% $-395
Rent	-10% $-461	-5% $-244	+0% $-27	+5% $191	+10% $408
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $139	base $-27	+0.5pp $-195	+1.0pp $-366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3735 Dora Ave Anchorage, AK	4.0	3.0	3067	$5,500	$1.79	24d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $650,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-09
   listed $650,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,053 · $671/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,053 · $671/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$8,053
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,280
• − Management: −$5,280
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$11,434
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,744
• After-tax cash flow: $2,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• City population: 218,117
• Population (ZIP): 21,208

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 5% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.96%
• Current HPI: 264.1446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+124.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $650,000 AKMLS
• 2023-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-18 Pending — AKMLS
• 2023-04-13 Listed $565,000 AKMLS
• 1998-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-04-01 Listed $325,000 AKMLS
• 1993-07-30 Listed $289,500 AKMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,053 · -9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.