409 Nathan St

Burleson, TX 76028

$209,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,870/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$526
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-149/mo
• Annual: $-1,793/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (10.9% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Burleson ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #236 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norwood El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 474 students, 63% FRL); Nick Kerr Middle (math 40% / reading 44%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 1,248 students, 43% FRL); Burleson Centennial H S (math 27% / reading 50%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,104 students, 35% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 684 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.