409 Nathan St · Burleson, TX 76028

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1971 8,015 sqft lot $196/sqft · 14% below area Est $244k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property is part of the First Look Initiative Program through May 29th. Property is sold AS IS. This property has 3 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and 1 half bathroom. The home has 1,072 square feet of living space and was built in 1971. It sits on a lot of approximately 8,015 square feet. The property includes a 2-car attached garage. It is located in the Gardens subdivision in Johnson County. The home is served by Burleson ISD. A new roof was installed April of this year.

Key facts

• Burleson isd
• Gardens subdivision
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• GARDENS SUBDIVISION
• BURLESON ISD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; Transaction type: For Sale
• Financial info: Listing terms include cash and conventional; Special listing condition: Real Estate Owned; Loan type: Treat As Clear; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces; Driveway; Garage faces front
• Security: Security features: Unknown
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Individual gas meter; Individual water meter; Natural gas available; Asphalt streets and curbs
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Built in 1971; Preowned
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Interior lot in a subdivision; Chain link and wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Kitchen approx. 12 x 10
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom approx. 13 x 10; Bedroom 2 approx. 11 x 10; Bedroom 3 approx. 11 x 10
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; One living area; One dining area; Total rooms: 6; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Burleson ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #236 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norwood El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 474 students, 63% FRL); Nick Kerr Middle (math 40% / reading 44%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 1,248 students, 43% FRL); Burleson Centennial H S (math 27% / reading 50%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,104 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 684 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,500 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,242
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -14.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Jasmine Ct	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,030 (-4%)	2mo	$215,000	$209	80
508 Oak St	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+3%)	6mo	$215,000	$195	79
217 Smith St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+4%)	15mo	$250,000	$224	66
604 Sue Ann Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+4%)	21mo	$265,000	$237	63
332 SW Dian St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,198 (+12%)	8mo	$259,900	$217	61
405 Gregory St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+14%)	22mo	$279,999	$230	56
621 Lynnewood Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+13%)	10mo	$205,000	$169	55
705 SW Sunnybrook Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,018 (-5%)	1mo	$219,900	$216	53
625 Lynnewood Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,168 (+9%)	23mo	$274,500	$235	49
208 Summercrest Blvd	0.73mi	3/1.0	977 (-9%)	0mo	$205,000	$210	47
128 SE Gardens Blvd	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,219 (+14%)	10mo	$240,000	$197	44
337 S Dobson St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,182 (+10%)	12mo	$240,000	$203	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-45,663
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-60,544
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 684
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$438 /mo · $5,260/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,059

Max offer price $183,500

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-31	-5% $-90	+0% $-149	+5% $-209	+10% $-268
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-223	+0% $-149	+5% $-76	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-44	-0.5pp $-96	base $-149	+0.5pp $-204	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
428 Tinker Trl Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1329	$1,735	$1.31	19d	1	0.06mi
207 Stefanie St Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,695	$1.48	26d	1	0.23mi
634 Lisa St Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,845	$1.49	26d	1	0.40mi
105 SE Gardens Blvd Apt 112 Burleson, TX	2.0	1.5	1019	$1,425	$1.40	9d	1	0.50mi
105 SE Gardens Blvd Apt 108 Burleson, TX	2.0	1.5	1019	$1,425	$1.40	26d	1	0.50mi
724 Sue Ann Ln Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,795	$1.60	45d	1	0.57mi
128 Meador Ln Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	947	$1,500	$1.58	45d	1	0.71mi
716 SW Sunset Ln Burleson, TX	3.0	1.0	1018	$1,725	$1.69	45d	1	0.71mi
926 Irene St Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,675	$1.12	26d	1	0.75mi
236 S Scott St Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,780	$1.42	14d	1	0.76mi
1045 Mitchell Ln Unit 1045 Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	20d	1	0.91mi
213 NW Jayellen Ave Burleson, TX	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,000	$1.42	7d	1	0.95mi
621 Barkridge Trl Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	14d	1	0.95mi
344 NW Renfro St Burleson, TX	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,580	$1.54	26d	1	0.98mi
444 E Renfro St Burleson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$2,250	$2.06	0d	1	1.05mi
112 SW Murphy Rd Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,850	$1.53	4d	1	1.11mi
450 E Renfro St Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,135	$1.51	45d	1	1.11mi
136 Arnold Ave Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,995	$1.53	1d	1	1.17mi
100 Arnold Ave Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,095	$1.46	24d	1	1.18mi
200 Village Creek Pkwy Unit 257 Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1051	$1,527	$1.45	14d	1	1.23mi
200 Village Creek Pkwy Unit 2121 Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1051	$1,486	$1.41	24d	1	1.23mi
532 NW King St Burleson, TX	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	45d	1	1.25mi
900 Vaughn Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,200	$1.56	45d	1	1.26mi
200 Village Creek Pkwy Burleson, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	905	$1,852	$2.05	22d	11	1.26mi
109 SW Cindy Ln Burleson, TX	3.0	1.0	1276	$1,700	$1.33	45d	1	1.26mi
912 Vaughn Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,700	$1.49	18d	1	1.28mi
200 Village Creek Pkwy Unit 223 Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1051	$1,637	$1.56	1d	1	1.29mi
409 Oxford St Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,995	$1.42	45d	1	1.31mi
155 Elk Dr Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,797	$1.56	1d	6	1.34mi
285 SE John Jones Dr Burleson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$2,154	$1.97	0d	14	1.36mi
609 NW Lorna St Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1381	$1,800	$1.30	45d	1	1.39mi
772 Hampshire Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1210	$2,350	$1.94	45d	1	1.48mi
416 Bretts Way Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,750	$1.37	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $209,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,900 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $219,900 Active 479-char remark
17. 2026-02-26
    historical
18. 2026-01-16
    listed $151,200 Active
19. 2026-01-07
    historical
20. 2025-09-25
    price $237,500
21. 2025-09-06
    price $239,000
22. 2025-07-09
    listed $240,000 Active
23. 2023-07-10
    soldstatus
24. 2023-07-07
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2023-06-22
    status Pending
26. 2023-06-19
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2023-06-14
    listed $219,900 Active
28. 2017-05-15
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2017-04-21
    soldstatus
30. 2017-04-02
    status Pending
31. 2017-03-23
    historical Active Option Contract
32. 2017-03-19
    listed $129,900 Active
33. 1995-01-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,260 · $438/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,260 · $438/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$5,260
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$5,326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,278
• After-tax cash flow: $-515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burleson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812180
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,349
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3818
• State rank: #236 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+61.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $209,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $219,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $151,200 NTREIS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $237,500 NTREIS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-07 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-06-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-06-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-06-14 Listed $219,900 NTREIS
• 2017-05-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-04-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-03-23 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2017-03-19 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 1995-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,260 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.