2139 E 4th St #13

Ontario, CA 91764

$175,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Active · 321 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,251/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$683
• Net cashflow: $1,359/mo
• Annual: $16,310/yr
• Cap rate: 15.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.28%
• DSCR: 2.48
• 1% rule: 1.86%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#435 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A-, housing B+; Watch: cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Cucamonga Elementary (suburban): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #867 of 1,400 in CA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rancho Cucamonga Middle (732 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $175k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 2.7% in Ontario — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,251/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 3075% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.