3730 Lincoln St NE

Columbia Heights, MN 55421

$250,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,039 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,635/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$477
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-497/mo
• Annual: $-5,961/yr
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.52%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-497 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (35.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (34.6% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $162k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#215 in MN, #4,509 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities D-.
• Columbia Heights Public School District (suburban): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #291 of 301 in MN (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.