3730 Lincoln St NE · Columbia Heights, MN 55421

$250,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,039 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1964 6,720 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful backyard w/ large deck. All levels finished including mother-in-law down. Needs TLC.

Key facts

• 6,720 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1964

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-497 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (35.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (34.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#215 in MN, #4,509 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities D-.
• Columbia Heights Public School District (suburban): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #291 of 301 in MN (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $162,252 (35.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.52%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-69,564
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-90,390
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55421

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,479/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,264

Max offer price $162,252

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 Peters Pl Columbia Heights, MN	1.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	24d	1	0.33mi
1300 Circle Terrace Blvd NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,995	$1.66	21d	1	0.40mi
1300 Circle Terrace Blvd NE Unit 1300 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,995	$1.66	10d	1	0.41mi
909 Gould Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,095	$2.26	1d	24	0.43mi
1011 41st Ave NE #220 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	4d	1	0.52mi
3820 Jackson St NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	984	$1,824	$1.85	24d	1	0.55mi
3725 NE Stinson Blvd St Anthony, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	701	$1,925	$2.75	21d	3	0.62mi
3318 Pierce St NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,450	$1.41	1d	1	0.62mi
4216 Van Buren St NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	876	$1,790	$2.04	43d	1	0.75mi
2551 38th Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$2,639	$2.95	1d	22	0.77mi
1103 44th Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1450	$2,024	$1.40	43d	1	0.82mi
3127 Central Ave NE Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	43d	1	0.92mi
2808 Silver Ln NE Saint Anthony, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,770	$2.08	43d	20	0.96mi
2808 Silver Ln NE Saint Anthony, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$2,050	$2.41	2d	13	0.96mi
2215 45th Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	24d	1	1.04mi
3923 Lookout Pl Unit 9 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,169	$1.46	43d	1	1.10mi
3923 Lookout Pl Unit 9 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	24d	1	1.10mi
1400 47th Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	900	$1,125	$1.25	43d	1	1.13mi
3817 Macalaster Dr NE Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	749	$1,389	$1.85	4d	5	1.16mi
3200 Diamond Eight Ter Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	787	$1,425	$1.81	2d	23	1.16mi
4654 Tyler St NE Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,275	$1.16	24d	1	1.19mi
2310 Silver Ln New Brighton, MN	3.0	1.0	707	$2,630	$3.72	1d	17	1.19mi
950 47th Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	800	$975	$1.22	43d	1	1.19mi
962 29th Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	43d	1	1.21mi
4550 Central Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1166	$1,148	$0.98	1d	1	1.24mi
2827 Polk St NE Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	920	$1,895	$2.06	3d	1	1.24mi
3857 Edgemoor Pl NE Unit 3 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	24d	1	1.25mi
301 Kathy Ln NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.5	1396	$2,095	$1.50	19d	1	1.29mi
4239 University Ave NE Unit 4239 Columbia Heights, MN	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,095	$1.90	17d	1	1.30mi
4730 Central Ave NE Unit 6 Columbia Heights, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	4d	1	1.30mi
1028 28th Ave NE Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	925	$1,495	$1.62	43d	1	1.31mi
4201 3rd St NE Apt 6 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	17d	1	1.33mi
3713 Foss Rd Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	750	$980	$1.31	4d	1	1.41mi
4314 3rd St NE Columbia Heights, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	1.42mi
2640 Fillmore St NE Unit 4 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,475	$1.64	43d	1	1.43mi
2639 NE Taylor St Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	875	$1,575	$1.80	17d	1	1.45mi
2130 County Rd E New Brighton, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,425	$1.50	17d	1	1.49mi
2130 County Rd E Apt 101 New Brighton, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,429	$1.50	20d	1	1.49mi
2130 County Rd E Apt 106 New Brighton, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,399	$1.47	21d	1	1.49mi
2130 County Rd E Apt 105 New Brighton, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,399	$1.47	17d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-15
   remarks 18-char remark
2. 2026-06-15
   listed $250,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,479 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,479 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,479
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$10,524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,526
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia Heights Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2709510
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,602
• Composite: 14.93/100
• National rank: #9369
• State rank: #291 of 301 in MN

Livability — Columbia Heights

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #4509

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia Heights, MN
• County: Anoka County · 277,116 people
• City population: 30,843
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 30,843
• Household income: $70,772
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1747.0

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.08%
• Current HPI: 258.4424
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+92.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $210,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-02 Sold (MLS) $90,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-25 Listed $93,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-14 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-06 Sold (MLS) $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-01 Listed $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,479 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.