2495 N Hill Ave

Decatur, IL 62526

$10,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · — sqft · Built 1979 · MultiFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $984/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax + insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $708/mo
• Annual: $8,501/yr
• Cap rate: 91.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 303.62%
• DSCR: 14.51
• 1% rule: 9.84%
• Cash to close: $2,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $10k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $708 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($984 rent vs $10k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $10k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $69 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $221 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stephen Decatur Middle School (math 0% / reading 5%, grade F, #658 of 665 statewide, top 99%, 459 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $240k (96%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 91.3% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.