2495 N Hill Ave · Decatur, IL 62526

$10,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 1979

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

18-pad on well/septic. 8 occ. Value-add.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Big covered porch
• Working fireplace

Tags

• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• BIG COVERED PORCH
• BACK DECK
• WORKING FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $708 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($984 rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $10k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 91.3% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stephen Decatur Middle School (math 0% / reading 5%, grade F, #658 of 665 statewide, top 99%, 459 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $69 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $221 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $240k (96%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $9,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 91.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 303.62%
• DSCR: 14.51
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,785
• List price: $10,000
• Delta: -89.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.66×
• Total profit: $43,848
• Equity at exit: $1,845

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 35.51×
• Total profit: $96,636
• Equity at exit: $1,485

Cash invested: $2,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62526

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $984 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$12 /mo · $150/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $708

Break-even live

Break-even rent $87

Max offer price $10,000

Occupancy floor 23%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $715	-5% $712	+0% $708	+5% $705	+10% $702
Rent	-10% $631	-5% $670	+0% $708	+5% $747	+10% $786
Rate	-1.0pp $713	-0.5pp $711	base $708	+0.5pp $706	+1.0pp $703

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,500
• Closing costs: $300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2148 N Graceland Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,195	$1.38	45d	1	0.74mi
925 W Olive St Decatur, IL	1.0	1.0	—	$650	—	45d	1	0.85mi
644 W Division St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,200	$0.88	45d	1	1.03mi
1345 N Fairview Ave Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	785	$985	$1.25	45d	1	1.09mi
1908 N Union St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	704	$899	$1.28	45d	1	1.12mi
254 W Peoria Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	—	$820	—	45d	1	1.13mi
1311 N Walnut Grove Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	781	$1,100	$1.41	45d	1	1.15mi
1700 W Grand Ave Unit NA Decatur, IL	1.0	1.0	418	$575	$1.38	45d	1	1.21mi
510 E Pierson Ave Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	895	$1,200	$1.34	45d	1	1.36mi
1017 N Taylor Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	—	$790	—	45d	1	1.41mi
1527 N Main St Unit 1 Decatur, IL	1.0	1.0	—	$740	—	45d	1	1.41mi
1090 N Oakcrest Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	1344	$1,100	$0.82	45d	1	1.44mi
1245 N Union St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	1111	$995	$0.90	45d	1	1.45mi
1091 N Oakcrest Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	672	$950	$1.41	45d	1	1.46mi
1045 N Monroe St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,000	$0.91	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $10,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $10,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $10,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $10,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $10,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $10,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $10,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $10,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $10,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $10,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $10,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $10,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-13
    price $10,000 1111-char remark
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $12,000 Active 1111-char remark
15. 2026-02-27
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed 40-char remark

    Show marketing remark (40 chars)

    18-pad on well/septic. 8 occ. Value-add.

16. 2026-02-27
    listed $250,000 Active 40-char remark

    Show marketing remark (40 chars)

    18-pad on well/septic. 8 occ. Value-add.

17. 2024-05-23
    soldstatus $130,896 Closed
18. 2024-05-23
    listed $212,724 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$560
• − Property taxes: −$150
• − Insurance: −$50
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$945
• − Management: −$945
• − Depreciation: −$291
• Taxable income: $8,870
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,129
• After-tax cash flow: $6,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur SD 61
• NCES district ID: 1711850
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,864
• Composite: 3.99/100
• National rank: #10059
• State rank: #605 of 620 in IL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #20533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Decatur, IL
• County: Macon County · 78,333 people
• City population: 78,333
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,483
• Household income: $49,062
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1041.0

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,568 people
• By 2030: 94,973 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 85,250 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 75,920 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 55,962 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 36,468 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 22% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.21%
• Current HPI: 182.871
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-92.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $10,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-02-27 Listed $250,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Sold (MLS) $175,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-23 Listed $212,724 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-23 Sold (MLS) $130,896 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid