47818 Phoenix St

Indio, CA 92201

$447,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,940 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,692/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,349
• Tax + insurance: −$594
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$775
• Net cashflow: $-26/mo
• Annual: $-314/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $125,412

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $448k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-314/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $443k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $369k (17.6% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($441k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $369k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#927 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 514 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $258k; list at $448k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Indio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,692/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 2036% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.