953 Creek Locks Rd

Rosendale, NY 12472

$139,000C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,710 sqft · Built 1840 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,517/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $238/mo
• Annual: $2,857/yr
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.34%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingston City School District (urban): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert R Graves School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 316 students, 51% FRL); J Watson Bailey Middle School (math 22% / reading 48%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 968 students, 53% FRL); Kingston High School (math 94% / reading 91%, grade A+, #153 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 1,856 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 45% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kingston City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1840 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $139k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1840 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.