18538 Oakley Ave

Lansing, IL 60438

$239,800F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,197 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,695/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-213/mo
• Annual: $-2,551/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.80%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $67,144

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (29.3% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $170k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#296 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Thornton Fractional Twp Hsd 215 (suburban): math 9% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #563 of 620 in IL (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Thornton Fractnl So High School (math 11% / reading 14%, grade F, #504 of 693 statewide, top 73%, 1,927 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $240k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.