18538 Oakley Ave · Lansing, IL 60438

$239,800

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,197 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1965 6,926 sqft lot Est $205k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Move In Ready Meticulously Maintained Throughout 3-Bedroom Main Level-Extra in 1-Bedroom in Basement Ranch Home Finished Basement, 1.5 Baths with Extra Basement Walk-In Shower! Main Floor White Oak Hardwood Natural Finish. New Water Heater. This Home Combines Comfort, Style, and Functionality. New Windows Installed Even Basement. Open Concept Kitchen with Classic White Finished and Exterior Exhaust Fan, Keeping The Home Smelling Fresh After Cooking Pot Roast or Frying Bacon. Three Generously Sized Bedrooms and Full Updated Bathroom on Main Floor. The Kitchen Features Easy Flow Kitchen Ready for Any Holiday Meals. Plenty of Storage Throughout the Home. Large Closets and Basement Bed

Key facts

• 6,926 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#296 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Thornton Fractional Twp Hsd 215 (suburban): math 9% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #563 of 620 in IL (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Thornton Fractnl So High School (math 11% / reading 14%, grade F, #504 of 693 statewide, top 73%, 1,927 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $240k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $169,512 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.80%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,687
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2444 187th Pl	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,086 (-9%)	4mo	$175,000	$161	63
18032 Wildwood Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,224 (+2%)	1mo	$170,000	$139	61
18518 Glen Oak Ave	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,338 (+12%)	6mo	$257,000	$192	60
18429 Arcadia Ave	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+13%)	6mo	$265,000	$196	58
18331 Hickory St	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,080 (-10%)	1mo	$242,500	$225	57
3007 190th St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+3%)	2mo	$199,900	$162	57
18429 Ridgewood Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-10%)	6mo	$185,000	$171	53
2916 189th St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-9%)	7mo	$220,000	$201	53
2621 Ridge Rd	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,323 (+10%)	2mo	$216,000	$163	52
18036 Oakley Ave	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,176 (-2%)	6mo	$273,000	$232	52
18246 Wildwood Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-13%)	8mo	$164,900	$159	41
18202 Locust St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,366 (+14%)	7mo	$185,000	$135	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-52,437
• Equity at exit: $35,755

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-63,256
• Equity at exit: $20,734

Cash invested: $67,144 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60438

• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,331/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,964

Max offer price $202,245

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-77	-5% $-145	+0% $-213	+5% $-280	+10% $-348
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-280	+0% $-213	+5% $-146	+10% $-79
Rate	-1.0pp $-92	-0.5pp $-152	base $-213	+0.5pp $-275	+1.0pp $-338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,950
• Closing costs: $7,194
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18550 Torrence Ave #25 Lansing, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	12d	1	0.26mi
18440 Torrence Ave Lansing, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	25d	1	0.29mi
18361 Glen Oak Ave Unit 1E Lansing, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	25d	1	0.30mi
18381 Torrence Ave Lansing, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	25d	1	0.32mi
2824 186th St Lansing, IL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,900	$2.07	11d	1	0.34mi
3341 S Schultz Dr Lansing, IL	4.0	2.0	1452	$2,250	$1.55	11d	1	0.99mi
17723 Exchange Ave Unit 17723-1N Lansing, IL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	2d	1	1.05mi
3020 178th St Apt C7 Lansing, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,550	$1.72	25d	1	1.12mi
3020 178th St Unit C1 Lansing, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,550	$1.72	2d	1	1.12mi
18335 Sherman St Unit 3 Lansing, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	2d	1	1.14mi
17754 Rosewood Dr Unit 1N Lansing, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,370	$1.61	25d	1	1.21mi
17640 Rosewood Dr Unit 2A Lansing, IL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,475	$1.55	18d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $239,800 Active
3. 2003-05-06
   soldstatus $143,500
4. 1986-04-01
   soldstatus $64,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,331 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,887 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,556/yr (+$130/mo · 66.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,433
• − Property taxes: −$2,331
• − Insurance: −$1,199
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − Depreciation: −$6,976
• Taxable loss: −$6,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,645
• After-tax cash flow: $-907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Fractional Twp Hsd 215
• NCES district ID: 1738940
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,207
• Composite: 10.27/100
• National rank: #9793
• State rank: #563 of 620 in IL

Livability — Lansing

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #5698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lansing, IL
• County: Cook County · 4,486,803 people
• City population: 28,806
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 28,806
• Household income: $75,681
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 830.0

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 25% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.65%
• Current HPI: 210.3398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+271.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $239,800 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $143,500 Public Records
• 1986-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,331 · -27.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.