13959 E Montgomery Rd

Scottsdale, AZ 85262

$1,350,000F

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,581 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,590/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,080
• Tax + insurance: −$2,250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,174
• Net cashflow: $-4,914/mo
• Annual: $-58,966/yr
• Cap rate: 1.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.60%
• DSCR: 0.31
• 1% rule: 0.41%
• Cash to close: $378,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath land listed at $1.35M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-59k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $639k (52.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $559k (58.6% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.31M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $559k (58.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $40k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 588 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($178k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.